U.S. employment surge expected in June, masks fragile labor market

The U.S. economy likely boosted employment at record levels in June as more bars and restaurants resumed operations. Though this would indicate that the virus-driven recession was probably over, an upsurge in new coronavirus cases threatens any economic pick-up.

Despite recording two consecutive months of gains, the country’s employment would still be about 16.6 million jobs below its pre-virus level. The unemployment rate is expected to decline by 12.3%, placing below its 13.3% record in May.

The Labor Department’s closely monitored employment figures would add to a pile of figures showing a sharp recuperation in economic activity.

The economic rebound was acknowledged by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying that the economy had “entered a new phase and had done so sooner than expected.” However, he warned that the outlook remains tentative as it would rely on “our success in containing the virus.”