Indian outlook remains dim as recession presses: Reuters poll

India’s virus-beaten economy is expected to suffer further for the rest of the year and will likely recover in early 2021. The forecast is likely as an upsurge in new virus infections outweighed a nascent recovery in consumption and business activity, a Reuters survey showed.

As nationwide lockdown completely dragged business activity in the second quarter, the Indian economy likely declined 18.3% from April to June. While the figure came milder than the 20.0% decline predicted in the previous survey, this remains to be the lowest reading since the country started quarterly reports in 1990.

An 8.1% contraction is expected in the third quarter, while the fourth quarter will likely see a 1.0% decline. These expectations came sharper than the 6.0% and 0.3% contraction predicted in July. Despite this, Asia’s third-biggest economy is expected to tally a 3.0% growth in 2021.